The Intro
As resident degenerate gambler of SYHD, I have been promoted from sardonic commentator to the ranks of talentless poster. It is my civic duty to bring a little class to this federation. My gambling skills can be best described as Mr. Perfect meets Ted Debiase. As part of my weekly shtick, I will handicap college football games that interest only me. Unlike other valued contributors, I will not self-deprecate and I will provide posts that are more ornamenting than banausic. Wrap your arms around the last part of that sentence MF’er. Told you I was smart. I will empower any genius who comes here to shed their morose existence. I will force you to denounce Brandon Lang. I will attribute my incredible accuracy to being better than you at life, and I will fail to give any credit to other pundits whose picks I may steal directly from. I will hate you for not being me. I will never pick a game wrong. If I do, it is your fault.
The Picks
The Helen Roper- named after the sexually frustrated wife of Stanley Roper on the 70’s slapstick sitcom Three’s Company. Helen Roper was a sure thing. I take these fuckers seriously.
Louisville (2-2) at NC State (1-3).
The Line: Louisville -9. The line opened at 8 and with 76% of the betting public taking Louisville, the line has jumped to 9. Expect it to increase.
The Overview: Louisville is 0-3 ATS this year, mostly because a) they can’t play defense and b) Vegas did not catch up to the fact that they can’t play defense. They are the rare combination of a Top 5 offense and bottom 5 defense, which makes their games fun to watch, but difficult to handicap. Their offense averages 50pts a game, but they are giving up 33 to the likes of Middle Tennessee St. and Syracuse. NC State might be as bad as Duke this year. Seriously.
The Stats: 619-324; 50-24. Louisville doubles NC State up in yards and points scored.
Notable Matchups: NCSU is giving up nearly 250 yds a game on the ground, and has yet to hold an opponent to under 200 yds rushing. Louisville’s Anthony Allen has ran for nearly 500 yards on the year and 5tds, at over 6 yards per, and has provided balance to Louisville’s potent offense. Considering that Louisville has learned that it does not do any favors for its porous defense when they force Brohm to throw 50 yards a game, Louisville will seek to establish the run against a team who has a hard time defending it. The ability to stay off of the field may be just what the maligned Louisville defense will need this week. If the defense is able to put pressure on NCSU’s quarterback, they may be able to knock him out of the game. He has been playing banged up as of late.
The Trends: I could write a lot of damning stuff about UL’s defense, but I would rather focus on the positives. Louisville has the talent to compete out of conference with mediocre BCS conference schools, as best exemplified by their going 10-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. ACC and 20-7 ATS in their last 27 non-conference games. But this isn’t about Louisville as much as it is NC State. After going to undergrad just outside of Raleigh, I can attest that Carter-Finley is not an intimidating place to play. UCF beat NCSU on opening day and Clemson dominated them last week. In fact, the Wolfpack are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog, and 0-5 ATS in the last 5 home games. The only team they have beaten straight up in their last 10 games is Wofford. As a dog, they don’t pack much of a bite either, going 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games. This is traditionally the time of year when they shit the bed, going 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games in September.
Synthesis: Kragthorpe has something to prove. The Wolfpack simply can’t score enough to keep up with Louisville. This line jumped out at me as being particularly low considering how good Louisville is on offense and how bad NC State is on D. Vegas is trying to adjust for their previously inflated lines, but picked the wrong team to do it against.
The Play: Louisville 42, NC State 27.
The Lady Bowerbird- named after the female Bowerbird who goes from elaborate bower to bower, ultimately selecting the male who builds the most ornate bower to mate with. With a little hard work, the Lady Bowerbird is a sure thing.
UL Monroe (0-3) at Troy (2-2). Line Troy -13.5.
Troy has scored more points against better competition through the course of the year. Coming off of the fund the women’s soccer program tour, each team should be ready for conference play. Since halftime of the Florida game, Troy has been a very confident team. Omar Haugabrook is a good quarterback and should be able to pass efficiently against a defense that is allowing nearly 300 in the air per. 83 percent of the smart money has taken Troy in his game.
The Play: Troy 34, ULM 20
Penn State (3-1) at Illinois (3-1). Line PSU-3.
I won’t even acknowledge this with analysis. Joe Paterno is more than three points better than Ron Zook. Bet on it.
The Play: Penn State 24, Illinois 10
The Hymen- need I explain? Far from a sure thing, but certainly penetrable.
Alabama +2.5 vs. FSU @ Jacksonville.- Don’t be fooled by the location. The crowd will be a factor in Bama’s favor. FSU has shown no proof they can match up schematically or athletically with a Top 25 team like Alabama. Take the points.
Clemson -3 at Georgia Tech.- After the way Georgia Tech played last week, they have proven they are not the ACC contender they were last year. Clemson seems like a team poised for a late season showdown with BC for conference superiority. With that said, both teams are historically unpredictable week to week, and I would not be surprised if GT came out with exotic blitz packages to confuse Clemson’s first year QB in his first true road test. Both teams run the ball exceptionally well, but quarterback play will be the difference. I think Harper is a gamer, and Clemson is an overall better team.
Notre Dame at Purdue -22. – I have made a lot of money betting against Notre Dame in their last 6 games. This Purdue team has a very powerful offense and is hungry for a chance to put up big numbers on the Irish. Purdue will be playing with mixed emotions, still laughing from reading Charlie Weiss’ myspace page and angry from being snubbed by the pollsters last week. After this win, America will finally take notice and Purdue should crack the Top 25.
Since we here at SYHD can’t get drunk off of a six-pack, we offer a shot of 4 horsemen of the apocalypse guaranteed to leave you with a hangover. Much like shooting a 4 horsemen, there is no rhyme or reason as to why we make these picks, and there certainly is no explanation.
7. LSU at Tulane (+40)
8. USC at Washington (+21)
9. Ohio State at Minnesota (+23.5)
10. Mississippi State at South Carolina (-14)
The Outro
YTD record straight up: Undefeated.
YTD record ATS: Undefeated.
As resident degenerate gambler of SYHD, I have been promoted from sardonic commentator to the ranks of talentless poster. It is my civic duty to bring a little class to this federation. My gambling skills can be best described as Mr. Perfect meets Ted Debiase. As part of my weekly shtick, I will handicap college football games that interest only me. Unlike other valued contributors, I will not self-deprecate and I will provide posts that are more ornamenting than banausic. Wrap your arms around the last part of that sentence MF’er. Told you I was smart. I will empower any genius who comes here to shed their morose existence. I will force you to denounce Brandon Lang. I will attribute my incredible accuracy to being better than you at life, and I will fail to give any credit to other pundits whose picks I may steal directly from. I will hate you for not being me. I will never pick a game wrong. If I do, it is your fault.
The Picks
The Helen Roper- named after the sexually frustrated wife of Stanley Roper on the 70’s slapstick sitcom Three’s Company. Helen Roper was a sure thing. I take these fuckers seriously.
Louisville (2-2) at NC State (1-3).
The Line: Louisville -9. The line opened at 8 and with 76% of the betting public taking Louisville, the line has jumped to 9. Expect it to increase.
The Overview: Louisville is 0-3 ATS this year, mostly because a) they can’t play defense and b) Vegas did not catch up to the fact that they can’t play defense. They are the rare combination of a Top 5 offense and bottom 5 defense, which makes their games fun to watch, but difficult to handicap. Their offense averages 50pts a game, but they are giving up 33 to the likes of Middle Tennessee St. and Syracuse. NC State might be as bad as Duke this year. Seriously.
The Stats: 619-324; 50-24. Louisville doubles NC State up in yards and points scored.
Notable Matchups: NCSU is giving up nearly 250 yds a game on the ground, and has yet to hold an opponent to under 200 yds rushing. Louisville’s Anthony Allen has ran for nearly 500 yards on the year and 5tds, at over 6 yards per, and has provided balance to Louisville’s potent offense. Considering that Louisville has learned that it does not do any favors for its porous defense when they force Brohm to throw 50 yards a game, Louisville will seek to establish the run against a team who has a hard time defending it. The ability to stay off of the field may be just what the maligned Louisville defense will need this week. If the defense is able to put pressure on NCSU’s quarterback, they may be able to knock him out of the game. He has been playing banged up as of late.
The Trends: I could write a lot of damning stuff about UL’s defense, but I would rather focus on the positives. Louisville has the talent to compete out of conference with mediocre BCS conference schools, as best exemplified by their going 10-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. ACC and 20-7 ATS in their last 27 non-conference games. But this isn’t about Louisville as much as it is NC State. After going to undergrad just outside of Raleigh, I can attest that Carter-Finley is not an intimidating place to play. UCF beat NCSU on opening day and Clemson dominated them last week. In fact, the Wolfpack are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog, and 0-5 ATS in the last 5 home games. The only team they have beaten straight up in their last 10 games is Wofford. As a dog, they don’t pack much of a bite either, going 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games. This is traditionally the time of year when they shit the bed, going 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games in September.
Synthesis: Kragthorpe has something to prove. The Wolfpack simply can’t score enough to keep up with Louisville. This line jumped out at me as being particularly low considering how good Louisville is on offense and how bad NC State is on D. Vegas is trying to adjust for their previously inflated lines, but picked the wrong team to do it against.
The Play: Louisville 42, NC State 27.
The Lady Bowerbird- named after the female Bowerbird who goes from elaborate bower to bower, ultimately selecting the male who builds the most ornate bower to mate with. With a little hard work, the Lady Bowerbird is a sure thing.
UL Monroe (0-3) at Troy (2-2). Line Troy -13.5.
Troy has scored more points against better competition through the course of the year. Coming off of the fund the women’s soccer program tour, each team should be ready for conference play. Since halftime of the Florida game, Troy has been a very confident team. Omar Haugabrook is a good quarterback and should be able to pass efficiently against a defense that is allowing nearly 300 in the air per. 83 percent of the smart money has taken Troy in his game.
The Play: Troy 34, ULM 20
Penn State (3-1) at Illinois (3-1). Line PSU-3.
I won’t even acknowledge this with analysis. Joe Paterno is more than three points better than Ron Zook. Bet on it.
The Play: Penn State 24, Illinois 10
The Hymen- need I explain? Far from a sure thing, but certainly penetrable.
Alabama +2.5 vs. FSU @ Jacksonville.- Don’t be fooled by the location. The crowd will be a factor in Bama’s favor. FSU has shown no proof they can match up schematically or athletically with a Top 25 team like Alabama. Take the points.
Clemson -3 at Georgia Tech.- After the way Georgia Tech played last week, they have proven they are not the ACC contender they were last year. Clemson seems like a team poised for a late season showdown with BC for conference superiority. With that said, both teams are historically unpredictable week to week, and I would not be surprised if GT came out with exotic blitz packages to confuse Clemson’s first year QB in his first true road test. Both teams run the ball exceptionally well, but quarterback play will be the difference. I think Harper is a gamer, and Clemson is an overall better team.
Notre Dame at Purdue -22. – I have made a lot of money betting against Notre Dame in their last 6 games. This Purdue team has a very powerful offense and is hungry for a chance to put up big numbers on the Irish. Purdue will be playing with mixed emotions, still laughing from reading Charlie Weiss’ myspace page and angry from being snubbed by the pollsters last week. After this win, America will finally take notice and Purdue should crack the Top 25.
Since we here at SYHD can’t get drunk off of a six-pack, we offer a shot of 4 horsemen of the apocalypse guaranteed to leave you with a hangover. Much like shooting a 4 horsemen, there is no rhyme or reason as to why we make these picks, and there certainly is no explanation.
7. LSU at Tulane (+40)
8. USC at Washington (+21)
9. Ohio State at Minnesota (+23.5)
10. Mississippi State at South Carolina (-14)
The Outro
YTD record straight up: Undefeated.
YTD record ATS: Undefeated.
1 comment:
Imagine Mel being invited to play the drums for the Flight of the Conchords. Jimer writing for SYHD has a similar effect.
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